足球数据大师：专业计算器助力精准比分预测与分析

// 球队实力综合评价算法
function evaluateTeamStrength(offensiveStats, defensiveStats, possessionStats) {
    // 进攻指标权重 40%
    const offensiveScore = (offensiveStats.goalsPerGame * 0.5 + 
                           offensiveStats.shotsOnTarget * 0.3 + 
                           offensiveStats.keyPasses * 0.2) * 0.4;
    
    // 防守指标权重 35%
    const defensiveScore = (defensiveStats.cleanSheets * 0.4 + 
                           (1 / defensiveStats.goalsConcededPerGame) * 0.4 + 
                           defensiveStats.interceptions * 0.2) * 0.35;
    
    // 控球与组织权重 25%
    const possessionScore = (possessionStats.avgPossession * 0.5 + 
                            possessionStats.passAccuracy * 0.3 + 
                            possessionStats.successfulDribbles * 0.2) * 0.25;
    
    const totalScore = (offensiveScore + defensiveScore + possessionScore).toFixed(2);
    return { totalScore, offensiveScore, defensiveScore, possessionScore };
}

// 示例数据
const teamData = {
    offensiveStats: { goalsPerGame: 1.8, shotsOnTarget: 5.2, keyPasses: 10.5 },
    defensiveStats: { cleanSheets: 8, goalsConcededPerGame: 0.9, interceptions: 12.3 },
    possessionStats: { avgPossession: 58.5, passAccuracy: 85.2, successfulDribbles: 8.7 }
};

const evaluation = evaluateTeamStrength(teamData.offensiveStats, teamData.defensiveStats, teamData.possessionStats);
console.log(`综合评分: ${evaluation.totalScore}/10`);

// 比赛场景蒙特卡洛模拟
function simulateMatch(homeTeam, awayTeam, iterations = 10000) {
    let homeWins = 0, draws = 0, awayWins = 0;
    const scorelines = {};
    
    for (let i = 0; i < iterations; i++) {
        // 基于球队进攻/防守数据生成随机进球数
        const homeGoals = poissonRandom(homeTeam.avgGoalsScored * homeTeam.homeAdvantage);
        const awayGoals = poissonRandom(awayTeam.avgGoalsScored * awayTeam.awayFactor);
        
        // 记录结果
        if (homeGoals > awayGoals) homeWins++;
        else if (homeGoals < awayGoals) awayWins++;
        else draws++;
        
        // 记录具体比分
        const scoreline = `${homeGoals}-${awayGoals}`;
        scorelines[scoreline] = (scorelines[scoreline] || 0) + 1;
    }
    
    // 计算概率
    const homeWinProb = ((homeWins / iterations) * 100).toFixed(1);
    const drawProb = ((draws / iterations) * 100).toFixed(1);
    const awayWinProb = ((awayWins / iterations) * 100).toFixed(1);
    
    // 找出最常见比分
    let mostCommonScore = Object.keys(scorelines)[0];
    for (const score in scorelines) {
        if (scorelines[score] > scorelines[mostCommonScore]) {
            mostCommonScore = score;
        }
    }
    
    return {
        homeWinProb: `${homeWinProb}%`,
        drawProb: `${drawProb}%`,
        awayWinProb: `${awayWinProb}%`,
        mostCommonScore,
        simulations: iterations
    };
}

// 辅助函数：泊松分布随机数生成
function poissonRandom(lambda) {
    let L = Math.exp(-lambda);
    let k = 0;
    let p = 1;
    
    do {
        k++;
        p *= Math.random();
    } while (p > L);
    
    return k - 1;
}